Implied volatility (IV) — the size of price swing options are pricing in, annualized. ATM IV is the at-the-money level — the market's expected move.
Term structure — IV across expiries. Contango (front < back) is the normal calm state → mild upward drift. Backwardation (front > back) signals acute near-term stress/event → defensive/bearish near term.
Vol risk premium (VRP) — IV − realized vol. A positive premium (IV > realized) means vol-sellers are in control and the tape is calm (mild up). Compressed or negative (the stock realizing as much as priced) signals stress → bearish.
IV level — only matters at extremes: very high IV often near capitulation bottoms (contrarian up); very low IV = complacency (mild pullback risk). Read RELATIVE, not absolute.
The call — backwardation / compressed VRP → ↓; calm contango with a healthy premium → mild ↑; otherwise → neutral. Distinct from skew (which reads put-vs-call). Feeds Oracle; weight set by Phase-3 calibration.