The one question this page answers: is the market set up to move in one direction, or to chop? It reads that from what dealer gamma forces market-makers to do to stay hedged. The levels, the walls and the decay rate come from the full options chain, captured every 5 minutes and weighted by open interest (OI) only — never by volume. This page also publishes the measurement of its own thesis, and that measurement did not support it. Scroll to "Does any of this actually work?".
The verdict · NVDA · forward book
SET UP TO CHOP IN JAGGED BROKEN SHARDS
Dealers are long gamma where price is trading, so hedging pushes AGAINST moves.
JAGGED, BROKEN-SHARD CONFIGURATION, SHORT-DATED. Dealers are long gamma at this price, so hedging leans against moves — selling strength, buying weakness — which is what compresses ranges and turns breakouts back. Price is away from the gamma centre of mass, so the damping comes from the local book rather than from a magnet level. Most of this gamma expires today: the stabiliser stops existing at the close.
NO DIRECTIONAL LEAN. Dealer gamma describes the SHAPE of the path — how big and how jagged — not which way it points. The asymmetries that could carry a lean (which wall is closer, where the centre of mass sits, vanna, charm) do not agree strongly enough here to name a side, and on this stack none of them beat simply counting how often sessions close up.
As of 2026-08-25T20:23:01+00:00 (post_close), spot 213.16. The session has closed, so the same-day contracts in the final snapshot are already dead. This verdict is built on the FORWARD book — the gamma that still exists for the next session. Regime read from net dealer gamma inside +/-1% of spot, as a share of the gross gamma in that band; it nets 92% one way (called flat below 20%), over 5 strikes within ±2.75% of price — widened from the standard ±1% because that window held fewer than 5 strikes on this book.
The range the option market is charging for
the one-day move the option market is charging for. Part B found this is the figure that carries the information; the gamma reading did not add to it.
How fast this regime decays
This is how much of the book dies at its very next expiry. It is the regime's DECAY RATE rather than its level — how long whatever is shaping the tape has left to exist. The share of gamma at the front expiry is unremarkable for this book. A meaningful slice resets when it expires and the rest carries forward.
Where the walls sat, through the session — 5-minute chain, 2026-08-25
Walls MIGRATING through a session is more informative than their level. Across 80 snapshots the call wall moved 220.00 → 230.00, the put wall 190.00 → 190.00, and the gamma centre of mass 217.64 → 220.48. The sign of the at-spot gamma changed 0 time(s) during the session. A null zero-gamma cross is a real answer — on about a third of readings the cumulative curve never crosses zero inside the band — so it is drawn as a gap, never as zero.
Does the option book calm this move or amplify it? — NVDA · forward book
A different chart from the bars below. The bars break dealer gamma down strike by strike; this line adds it all up and shows the total at each hypothetical spot price. Where the line is green (above zero) the book is long gamma and dealers hedge against moves — it CALMS the tape; where it is red (below zero) they are short gamma and hedge with moves — it AMPLIFIES. The tall black line is where price is now; the teal line is the flip between the two. Modelled, not measured — MODELLED, NOT MEASURED. Each contract is repriced with Black-Scholes gamma while its implied vol and days-to-expiry are held FIXED and spot is hypothetically moved (a sticky-strike assumption); r=0; same-day options are floored to 1 day of time so their gamma stays finite (they are removed entirely on the forward book); the contract universe is identical to the per-strike chart (+/-15% of spot, nearest 6 expiries); OI-weighted, never volume; calls +1, puts -1, netted per contract.
Net dealer gamma by strike — NVDA, 2026-08-25
Netted contract counts are the primary measure and the default view here; dollar gamma is the secondary toggle. Dollar gamma at a single strike balloons as price approaches it and collapses as price leaves, so a dollar-ranked wall is a moving target while a contract-counted one is not. By contract count the walls sit at 230.00 (calls) and 190.00 (puts); by dollar gamma at 230.00 and 190.00. The shaded band is ±1% around spot — that band is the regime measure at the top of this page.
Optional data · previous bull & bear runs · NVDA · close-to-close swings ≥ 15% · daily archive 1999-01-22 → 2026-08-25
Every close in the archive, with each bull run shaded green and each bear run red at the threshold selected above. Runs are CLOSE-only — intraday extremes are not in this archive, so a run's depth understates the true high-low move. The last segment is the open run: it has not confirmed its next pivot and can still extend or be re-labelled.
The same runs OVERLAID: every run re-based to 0% at its own start, plotted against sessions elapsed, so the run we are in now (the black line) can be read against every previous run of the archive at a glance — steeper is faster, longer is more stretched.
| Run | Start | End | Sessions | Calendar days | Change | Pace / session | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BULL | 2026-07-29 | 2026-08-25 | 17 | 27 | +12.13% | +0.713% | OPEN — the run now |
| BEAR | 2026-05-14 | 2026-07-29 | 51 | 76 | -19.40% | -0.380% | completed |
| BULL | 2026-03-30 | 2026-05-14 | 32 | 45 | +42.73% | +1.335% | completed |
| BEAR | 2025-10-29 | 2026-03-30 | 103 | 152 | -20.22% | -0.196% | completed |
| BULL | 2025-04-21 | 2025-10-29 | 133 | 191 | +113.64% | +0.854% | completed |
| BEAR | 2025-04-09 | 2025-04-21 | 7 | 12 | -15.24% | -2.177% | completed |
| BULL | 2025-04-04 | 2025-04-09 | 3 | 5 | +21.23% | +7.076% | completed |
| BEAR | 2025-02-20 | 2025-04-04 | 31 | 43 | -32.69% | -1.054% | completed |
| BULL | 2025-02-03 | 2025-02-20 | 12 | 17 | +20.10% | +1.675% | completed |
| BEAR | 2025-01-06 | 2025-02-03 | 18 | 28 | -21.93% | -1.218% | completed |
| BULL | 2024-09-06 | 2025-01-06 | 83 | 122 | +45.32% | +0.546% | completed |
| BEAR | 2024-08-19 | 2024-09-06 | 13 | 18 | -20.90% | -1.608% | completed |
| BULL | 2024-08-07 | 2024-08-19 | 8 | 12 | +31.43% | +3.929% | completed |
| BEAR | 2024-06-18 | 2024-08-07 | 34 | 50 | -27.05% | -0.795% | completed |
| BULL | 2024-04-19 | 2024-06-18 | 41 | 60 | +77.93% | +1.901% | completed |
| BEAR | 2024-03-25 | 2024-04-19 | 18 | 25 | -19.79% | -1.100% | completed |
| BULL | 2023-10-26 | 2024-03-25 | 102 | 151 | +135.58% | +1.329% | completed |
| BEAR | 2023-08-31 | 2023-10-26 | 39 | 56 | -18.29% | -0.469% | completed |
| BULL | 2022-12-28 | 2023-08-31 | 169 | 246 | +251.63% | +1.489% | completed |
| BEAR | 2022-12-13 | 2022-12-28 | 10 | 15 | -22.33% | -2.233% | completed |
| BULL | 2022-10-14 | 2022-12-13 | 41 | 60 | +60.97% | +1.487% | completed |
| BEAR | 2022-08-04 | 2022-10-14 | 50 | 71 | -41.57% | -0.831% | completed |
| BULL | 2022-07-01 | 2022-08-04 | 23 | 34 | +32.31% | +1.405% | completed |
| BEAR | 2022-06-02 | 2022-07-01 | 20 | 29 | -25.87% | -1.294% | completed |
| BULL | 2022-05-24 | 2022-06-02 | 6 | 9 | +21.28% | +3.547% | completed |
| BEAR | 2022-03-29 | 2022-05-24 | 39 | 56 | -43.63% | -1.119% | completed |
| BULL | 2022-03-14 | 2022-03-29 | 11 | 15 | +34.35% | +3.122% | completed |
| BEAR | 2022-02-09 | 2022-03-14 | 22 | 33 | -20.13% | -0.915% | completed |
| BULL | 2022-01-27 | 2022-02-09 | 9 | 13 | +21.70% | +2.411% | completed |
| BEAR | 2021-11-29 | 2022-01-27 | 41 | 59 | -34.25% | -0.835% | completed |
| BULL | 2021-05-13 | 2021-11-29 | 138 | 200 | +144.24% | +1.045% | completed |
| BEAR | 2021-04-15 | 2021-05-13 | 20 | 28 | -15.32% | -0.766% | completed |
| BULL | 2021-03-08 | 2021-04-15 | 27 | 38 | +39.20% | +1.452% | completed |
| BEAR | 2021-02-16 | 2021-03-08 | 14 | 20 | -24.38% | -1.741% | completed |
| BULL | 2020-09-08 | 2021-02-16 | 110 | 161 | +28.69% | +0.261% | completed |
| BEAR | 2020-09-02 | 2020-09-08 | 3 | 6 | -16.96% | -5.654% | completed |
| BULL | 2020-03-16 | 2020-09-02 | 119 | 170 | +192.19% | +1.615% | completed |
| BEAR | 2020-02-19 | 2020-03-16 | 18 | 26 | -37.59% | -2.088% | completed |
| BULL | 2019-08-15 | 2020-02-19 | 128 | 188 | +111.53% | +0.871% | completed |
| BEAR | 2019-07-24 | 2019-08-15 | 16 | 22 | -16.73% | -1.046% | completed |
| BULL | 2019-06-03 | 2019-07-24 | 36 | 51 | +33.55% | +0.932% | completed |
| BEAR | 2019-04-10 | 2019-06-03 | 36 | 54 | -30.36% | -0.843% | completed |
| BULL | 2019-01-29 | 2019-04-10 | 50 | 71 | +45.97% | +0.919% | completed |
| BEAR | 2019-01-25 | 2019-01-29 | 2 | 4 | -17.83% | -8.914% | completed |
| BULL | 2018-12-24 | 2019-01-25 | 21 | 32 | +26.02% | +1.239% | completed |
| BEAR | 2018-12-03 | 2018-12-24 | 14 | 21 | -25.26% | -1.805% | completed |
| BULL | 2018-11-19 | 2018-12-03 | 9 | 14 | +17.51% | +1.946% | completed |
| BEAR | 2018-11-01 | 2018-11-19 | 12 | 18 | -33.66% | -2.805% | completed |
| BULL | 2018-10-29 | 2018-11-01 | 3 | 3 | +17.50% | +5.835% | completed |
| BEAR | 2018-10-01 | 2018-10-29 | 20 | 28 | -35.85% | -1.793% | completed |
| BULL | 2017-04-13 | 2018-10-01 | 369 | 536 | +203.03% | +0.550% | completed |
| BEAR | 2017-02-07 | 2017-04-13 | 46 | 65 | -19.84% | -0.431% | completed |
| BULL | 2016-02-08 | 2017-02-07 | 252 | 365 | +372.36% | +1.478% | completed |
| BEAR | 2015-12-04 | 2016-02-08 | 43 | 66 | -25.27% | -0.588% | completed |
| BULL | 2015-07-27 | 2015-12-04 | 92 | 130 | +74.78% | +0.813% | completed |
| BEAR | 2015-03-20 | 2015-07-27 | 88 | 129 | -17.72% | -0.201% | completed |
| BULL | 2014-10-13 | 2015-03-20 | 109 | 158 | +39.79% | +0.365% | completed |
| BEAR | 2014-09-04 | 2014-10-13 | 27 | 39 | -16.18% | -0.599% | completed |
| BULL | 2012-11-16 | 2014-09-04 | 451 | 657 | +76.01% | +0.169% | completed |
| BEAR | 2012-08-13 | 2012-11-16 | 66 | 95 | -23.16% | -0.351% | completed |
Source: yahoo_max_seed + live daily shard. A swing threshold is a definition, not a discovery — 10% is the conventional correction cut, 20% the conventional bear-market cut; the buttons re-segment the same archive so the definition is yours to pick.
Major support & resistance · NVDA · forward book
Ranked by netted contract count at the strike (call open interest minus put open interest), as a share of the netted contracts across the whole band. Top 3 each side — a secondary strike close to price routinely matters more than the headline wall far from it, which is why this is a ladder and not a single level.
The levels · forward book
| Reading | Value | Basis | What that state means |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net dealer gamma at spot | 33.6 | percentile of history | Dealer gamma at spot is unremarkable — it sits about where it usually does. Hedging flow is neither strongly absorbing moves nor strongly adding to them, so the option book is not the dominant force in the tape at this price. |
| Share of dealer gamma at the front expiry | 67.6 | share of the book | The share of gamma at the front expiry is unremarkable for this book. A meaningful slice resets when it expires and the rest carries forward. |
| Room between the walls | 100.0 | percentile of history | The walls are about as far apart as they get. The corridor of concentrated dealer hedging is unusually wide, which leaves a large span around price where the option book exerts little mechanical pull either way. |
| Distance from spot to the zero-gamma cross | 51.4 | percentile of history | Spot sits about its usual distance from the zero-gamma cross. The crossing strike is neither unusually near nor unusually far. |
| What the tape delivered versus what options charged | 0.6 | percentile of history | The tape delivered far less movement than the option market charged for. Whoever paid for that volatility got a session that never came close to justifying it, and whoever sold it collected the difference. |
Does any of this actually work? — this app measuring its own thesis
The dealer-positioning MECHANICS are still a fact about the book — where gamma sits, which strikes force hedging, how fast it decays. Those are structural readings, not forecasts. What this test refuses to support is treating them as an independent edge over implied volatility.
| Quintile | n | Next range (median) | Middle half | What options charged | Range ÷ charged | Path efficiency | Failed breakouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 — most short gamma | 200 | 1.82% | 1.19%–2.94% | 1.70% | 1.072 | 0.469 | 37.1% of 178 |
| Q2 | 192 | 1.75% | 1.23%–2.56% | 1.81% | 0.998 | 0.480 | 30.9% of 165 |
| Q3 | 192 | 1.89% | 1.20%–2.76% | 1.77% | 1.070 | 0.407 | 35.3% of 184 |
| Q4 | 192 | 1.70% | 1.01%–2.72% | 1.54% | 1.081 | 0.509 | 32.0% of 178 |
| Q5 — most long gamma | 192 | 1.48% | 0.92%–2.35% | 1.38% | 1.090 | 0.438 | 33.3% of 168 |
| Root | n | Raw: gamma → next range | Vol-controlled: gamma → range ÷ charged | Blast-vs-shards (path efficiency) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 121 | -0.145 (p=0.113) | +0.114 (p=0.214) | +0.013 (p=0.884) |
| QQQ | 121 | -0.164 (p=0.073) | -0.016 (p=0.863) | -0.189 (p=0.038) |
| IWM | 121 | -0.226 (p=0.013) | +0.072 (p=0.433) | -0.021 (p=0.820) |
| SPX | 121 | -0.269 (p=0.003) | -0.009 (p=0.928) | +0.043 (p=0.636) |
| SPXW | 108 | -0.351 (p=0.000) | +0.111 (p=0.369) | -0.054 (p=0.581) |
| AAPL | 121 | -0.141 (p=0.122) | +0.098 (p=0.283) | +0.091 (p=0.322) |
| MSFT | 121 | -0.122 (p=0.182) | -0.104 (p=0.256) | -0.143 (p=0.117) |
| NVDA | 121 | +0.056 (p=0.541) | +0.140 (p=0.127) | +0.153 (p=0.094) |
| TSLA | 121 | -0.091 (p=0.320) | +0.026 (p=0.780) | -0.046 (p=0.620) |
Directional bias — why it stays weak
Gamma is path-shape, not direction. The four asymmetries that could legitimately carry a lean were each measured against the next session's signed return. The number that matters is the base rate: 52.6% of next sessions simply closed up (n=968). A lean has to beat that, not 50%. None of them did — which is why "no directional lean" is this page's standing answer rather than a fallback.
| Asymmetry | n | Rank correlation | Hit rate | Beat the base rate? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| room to the call wall minus room to the put wall | 968 | -0.017 (p=0.609) | 48.2% | no |
| where the gamma centre of mass sits versus spot | 968 | -0.011 (p=0.731) | 49.3% | no |
| net vanna exposure — the mechanical bid if volatility falls | 968 | -0.053 (p=0.099) | 49.7% | no |
| net charm exposure — hedge drift from time passing | 968 | +0.100 (p=0.002) | 54.0% | yes |
How fresh this is, and what does not line up
| Clock | As of | Expected cadence | What it is |
|---|---|---|---|
| options chain · held | 2026-08-25T20:23:01+00:00 | every 5m | The full option chain, captured every 5 minutes while the market is open and held at the last reading once it closes. Outside trading hours a held clock is correct behaviour, not a failure. |
| profile build · held | 2026-08-25T21:50:47Z | every 10m | When the per-strike gamma profile on this page was last rebuilt from the chain archive. It rebuilds every 10 minutes while the market is open and holds at the last build once it closes — a held clock out of hours is correct, not a failure. |
| open interest · settled | 2026-08-25 | every 1d | Settled overnight by the clearing house for the PREVIOUS session. It does not move intraday — market structure, not neglect. |
| daily history · settled | 2026-08-24 | every 1d | The banked daily-close spine the history charts draw. One row per session. |
| bull/bear archive · settled | 2026-08-25 | every 1d | Daily closes from 1999-01-22 to 2026-08-25, used ONLY by the optional bull/bear runs block. It extends by one row per completed session, so a day behind is normal and a week behind is not. |
=== /gex — DEALER GAMMA REGIME · NVDA ===
QUESTION: Is the market set up to BLAST in a direction, or chop in jagged broken shards?
VERDICT: SET UP TO CHOP IN JAGGED BROKEN SHARDS
Dealers are long gamma where price is trading, so hedging pushes AGAINST moves.
JAGGED, BROKEN-SHARD CONFIGURATION, SHORT-DATED. Dealers are long gamma at this price, so
hedging leans against moves — selling strength, buying weakness — which is what compresses
ranges and turns breakouts back. Price is away from the gamma centre of mass, so the damping
comes from the local book rather than from a magnet level. Most of this gamma expires today: the
stabiliser stops existing at the close.
DIRECTIONAL LEAN: NONE
NO DIRECTIONAL LEAN. Dealer gamma describes the SHAPE of the path — how big and how jagged —
not which way it points. The asymmetries that could carry a lean (which wall is closer, where
the centre of mass sits, vanna, charm) do not agree strongly enough here to name a side, and on
this stack none of them beat simply counting how often sessions close up.
-- DOES THE OPTION BOOK CALM OR AMPLIFY THIS MOVE? (regime curve, forward book) --
at spot the book is CALMING moves (dealers long gamma — hedging leans AGAINST the tape, a shock-absorber).
dealer gamma at spot: +$340.7M per 1% move.
flip (regime boundary): 200.74, 5.83% below spot 213.16.
MODELLED, NOT MEASURED. Each contract is repriced with Black-Scholes gamma while its
implied vol and days-to-expiry are held FIXED and spot is hypothetically moved (a
sticky-strike assumption); r=0; same-day options are floored to 1 day of time so their
gamma stays finite (they are removed entirely on the forward book); the contract universe
is identical to the per-strike chart (+/-15% of spot, nearest 6 expiries); OI-weighted,
never volume; calls +1, puts -1, netted per contract.
-- THE RANGE THE OPTION MARKET IS CHARGING FOR --
daily breakeven 5.02% (front at-the-money implied vol 79.63% (expiry 2026-08-28) / sqrt(252))
gamma-conditional range median 2.92%, middle half 2.26% to 3.64% (quintile 2 of banked history, n=24)
NOTE: shown for completeness. Part B found the gamma reading adds nothing to the breakeven above.
wall-to-wall corridor 18.77% (put wall 190.00 to call wall 230.00)
last session delivered 1.86% (5-min sampled) = 0.37x the breakeven
-- MAJOR SUPPORT & RESISTANCE (forward book) --
These are where dealer hedging CONCENTRATES. They are not levels price is obliged to
respect: a big enough directional move overwhelms even a massive wall of gamma.
MEASURED: reaching the call wall, price closed back below it 40.2% of the time (n=256);
the put wall held 42.8% of 180. Neither beat a level the same distance away
with no gamma in it, so these rows are ranked by concentration, not reliability.
240.00 +26.84 pts +12.59% RESISTANCE secondary call concentration (2nd largest) 10.1% of book 87,232 net contracts
A further band of call hedging above price, lighter than the wall but closer to the
tape than the numbers alone suggest. The same mechanics apply, at smaller size.
230.00 +16.84 pts +7.90% RESISTANCE call wall (largest) 12.4% of book 106,877 net contracts
The heaviest call hedging overhead. On the usual assumption that dealers are LONG
these calls, staying hedged means selling into rallies as price approaches — which
is what would slow a move here.
225.00 +11.84 pts +5.55% RESISTANCE secondary call concentration (3rd largest) 7.3% of book 63,424 net contracts
A further band of call hedging above price, lighter than the wall but closer to the
tape than the numbers alone suggest. The same mechanics apply, at smaller size.
213.16 <<<< PRICE IS HERE
200.00 -13.16 pts -6.17% SUPPORT secondary put concentration (2nd largest) 4.1% of book 35,709 net contracts
A further band of put hedging below price, lighter than the wall. The same mechanics
apply, at smaller size.
195.00 -18.16 pts -8.52% SUPPORT secondary put concentration (3rd largest) 2.9% of book 25,418 net contracts
A further band of put hedging below price, lighter than the wall. The same mechanics
apply, at smaller size.
190.00 -23.16 pts -10.87% SUPPORT put wall (largest) 10.7% of book 91,979 net contracts
The heaviest put hedging below. On the usual assumption that dealers are SHORT these
puts, staying hedged means buying as price falls toward it — which is what would
cushion a move here.
220.00 +3.21% REGIME BOUNDARY — not support, not resistance
The strike where the running total of dealer gamma changes sign. Above it dealer
hedging leans against moves and damps them; below it hedging leans with moves and
amplifies them. It is a boundary between two behaviours, NOT a level price is repelled
by — and this page reads the live regime from the gamma right around spot rather
than from this level, because spot-versus-flip is much weaker than it is usually
treated as.
220.48 +3.44% MAGNET — the opposite of a barrier
The gamma-weighted centre of the book: the level hedging flow pulls price TOWARD,
rather than a level that pushes price away. Price sitting on it is the pinned
configuration.
! WHICH SIDE ARE DEALERS ACTUALLY ON? This is the one thing gamma exposure cannot see, and
it decides whether a wall brakes or accelerates. Every number here INFERS it from a
convention — that customers sell calls and buy puts, so dealers end up long calls and
short puts, which is what makes a call wall behave like a ceiling. When that convention is
wrong the sign flips with it: if customers are BUYING calls, dealers are SHORT them, and
staying hedged means buying INTO a rally through the same strike — the level becomes an
accelerant instead of a brake. On the book these levels are drawn from, 67.6% of the gross
gamma sits at the front expiry — the short-dated, retail-facing end of the chain, where
that assumption is least safe. Nothing on this page can confirm the direction, so read the
labels as where hedging is concentrated, not as which way it will push.
ranked by: netted contract count at the strike (call open interest minus put open interest), as a
share of the netted contracts across the whole band
-- LEVELS (forward book) --
The session has closed, so the same-day contracts in the final snapshot are already dead. This verdict is built on the FORWARD book — the gamma that still exists for the next session.
spot 213.16 as of 2026-08-25T20:23:01+00:00 (post_close)
net gamma in +/-1% band +$66.3M across 5 strikes [THE REGIME MEASURE]
= 92% of the gross gamma in that band, netting LONG (flat below 20%)
net dealer gamma at the single nearest strike +$3.0M at 212.50
whole-book gamma +$350.4M
call wall 230.00 (7.90% above) put wall 190.00 (10.87% below)
walls by CONTRACT COUNT call 230.00 put 190.00 [the stable read]
gamma centre of mass 220.48 (3.43% from spot) zero-gamma cross 220.00
NOTE: the zero-gamma cross is a LEVEL, not the regime boundary. The regime above is read from the NET GAMMA IN THE +/-1% BAND around spot.
-- HOW FAST THIS REGIME DECAYS --
67.6% — share of the FORWARD book's gross gamma sitting at its front expiry (2026-08-28) [drives the 'fast decay' in the verdict; fast at 50%]
0.0% of the gross gamma on the SESSION book expired at 2026-08-25's close
0% of the at-spot gamma disappeared with that expiry (+$3.0M on the session book -> +$3.0M on the forward book)
-- WHERE THIS SITS VERSUS ITS OWN BANKED HISTORY --
net dealer gamma at spot 33.6 percentile
Dealer gamma at spot is unremarkable — it sits about where it usually does. Hedging flow
is neither strongly absorbing moves nor strongly adding to them, so the option book is not
the dominant force in the tape at this price.
share of the book at the front expiry 67.6 % of the book
The share of gamma at the front expiry is unremarkable for this book. A meaningful slice
resets when it expires and the rest carries forward.
room between the walls 100.0 percentile
The walls are about as far apart as they get. The corridor of concentrated dealer hedging is
unusually wide, which leaves a large span around price where the option book exerts little
mechanical pull either way.
distance to the zero-gamma cross 51.4 percentile
Spot sits about its usual distance from the zero-gamma cross. The crossing strike is neither
unusually near nor unusually far.
last session delivered vs what options charged 0.6 percentile
The tape delivered far less movement than the option market charged for. Whoever paid for
that volatility got a session that never came close to justifying it, and whoever sold it
collected the difference.
-- PART B: THIS APP MEASURING ITS OWN CLAIM --
THESIS HELD: NO
NOT ESTABLISHED. Dealer gamma tracks the volatility regime, but it did not beat what the
option market had already priced.
- RAW, the thesis looks right: the most negative-gamma quintile was followed by a 1.82%
median range and the most positive by 1.48% (pooled rho -0.098, p=0.0023).
- CONTROLLED, it disappears. Measure the same range in units of what options charged for it
(range / IV breakeven) and the relationship is rho 0.034, p=0.30 — nothing.
Negative-gamma sessions ARE high-implied-vol sessions: median breakeven fell from 1.70% in
the short-gamma quintile to 1.38% in the long-gamma quintile. Gamma was reading the
thermometer, not adding to it.
- The BLAST-vs-SHARDS part specifically shows nothing: path efficiency (how much of the
day's travel became net progress) against gamma is rho -0.010, p=0.75.
- The FAILED-BREAKOUT prediction runs the wrong way. Long dealer gamma is supposed to
produce MORE failed breakouts; measured, long gamma faded 32.6% of breakout attempts and
short gamma faded 35.5%.
- No directional signal beat the base rate: 52.6% of next sessions closed up, and not one of
the four asymmetries did better.
+ ONE reading did keep a signal after the calendar was removed, and it is the DECAY RATE
rather than the level: the 0DTE share of gamma. Ranked inside each (root x weekday) cell
— which removes the weekday effect completely, not just its linear part — a higher
0DTE share went with the next session realising MORE range than options had charged for:
pooled rho 0.098 (n=847 across 35 cells), and POSITIVE on all 7 roots tested. It is called
SUGGESTIVE and not established, for three reasons: only 1 of 7 roots reach significance on
their own, the pooled p-value is overstated because the roots share market days, and the
sample is five months of one year.
QUINTILES OF DEALER GAMMA AT SPOT -> WHAT THE NEXT SESSION DID (pooled, within-root cuts)
Q n next range middle half breakeven ratio path eff failed breakouts
1 200 1.82% 1.19-2.94% 1.70% 1.07 0.469 37.1% of 178
2 192 1.75% 1.23-2.56% 1.81% 1.00 0.480 30.9% of 165
3 192 1.89% 1.20-2.76% 1.77% 1.07 0.407 35.3% of 184
4 192 1.70% 1.01-2.72% 1.54% 1.08 0.509 32.0% of 178
5 192 1.48% 0.92-2.35% 1.38% 1.09 0.438 33.3% of 168
Q1 = most NEGATIVE dealer gamma (blast end) Q5 = most POSITIVE (jagged/pinned end)
! POOLED SIGNIFICANCE IS OVERSTATED. The roots share the same market days and SPY/SPX/QQQ are
close to the same trade, so a pooled n is not that many independent observations — the
effective n is nearer the per-root session count.
! SPXW is excluded from every pooled set: same underlying as SPX, so its outcome rows are
duplicates.
! THE WEEKEND ARTEFACT. breakeven divides by sqrt(252) TRADING days, so a Friday reading is
compared against a Monday session carrying three calendar days of risk. Measured below as
friday_artefact. Friday rows carry weekend_span=true.
! 2026 only. The OI-weighted gamma archive starts 2026-03-02 (the OCC open-interest purchase
window), so there is no multi-year sample and no other market regime in it.
! This measures ASSOCIATION on banked sessions. It is not a trading result and carries no
costs, slippage or capacity.
! DIFFERENT CONSTRUCTION FROM THE LIVE READ. These hit rates are measured on the DAILY
DOLLAR-GEX AGGREGATE, because that is the only per-session gamma that exists back through
2026-02. The live panel on this page is built on per-strike NETTED CONTRACT COUNTS from the
5-minute chain recorder, which only starts 2026-08-05. Dollar gamma at a strike explodes as
spot approaches it and collapses as it leaves, so the aggregate is exactly the weaker
construction — this table does not validate the live measure exactly, and it is not
claimed to.
-- HOW FRESH, AND WHAT IS STALE BY DESIGN --
options chain 2026-08-25T20:23:01+00:00 expected every 5m [held at the last regular-hours reading — correct once the market closes, not a failure]
profile build 2026-08-25T21:50:47Z expected every 10m [held at the last regular-hours reading — correct once the market closes, not a failure]
open interest 2026-08-25 expected every 1d [settled once overnight — a day behind by market structure, not by neglect]
daily history 2026-08-24 expected every 1d [settled once overnight — a day behind by market structure, not by neglect]
bull/bear archive 2026-08-25 expected every 1d [settled once overnight — a day behind by market structure, not by neglect]
server clock now 2026-08-26T02:39:14Z (skew baseline only — NEVER a data timestamp)
chain_day 2026-08-25
chain_asof 2026-08-25T20:23:01+00:00
chain_phase post_close
chain_built 2026-08-25T21:50:47Z
chain_cadence every 5 minutes in regular trading hours, plus a pre-open and a post-close bracket
open_interest PREVIOUS session, settled overnight by the clearing house. It does not move intraday — a market-structure fact, not a defect.
history_last 2026-08-24
history_gex_window from 2026-03-02 (the OCC open-interest purchase); continues past 2026-08-04 from the live chain recorder rather than ending there
validation_built 2026-08-25T09:20:01Z
open-interest census 276 known, 0 MISSING (excluded, never zeroed), 30 genuine zeros
-- STANDING CAUTION --
Gamma is not destiny. A large enough directional move overwhelms even a very big wall of dealer
gamma — the hedging flow described here is one force among several, and it is the one that
gets run over when something bigger arrives. Everything on this page describes how the option
book is positioned; none of it is a statement about what price does next.
generated 2026-08-26T02:39:12Z · full JSON: /apps2/gex/api.php?sym=NVDA&full=1
{
"ok": true,
"sym": "NVDA",
"symbols": [
"SPY",
"QQQ",
"IWM",
"SPX",
"AAPL",
"MSFT",
"NVDA",
"TSLA",
"VIX"
],
"generated_utc": "2026-08-26T02:39:12Z",
"question": "Is the market set up to BLAST in a direction, or chop in jagged broken shards?",
"pctl_basis": {
"local_gamma": "percentile against this root's own banked daily history \u2014 ORIENTATION ONLY, because the banked series is the daily dollar aggregate and the live figure is per-strike from the 5-minute recorder",
"zdte_share": "the share itself (0-100), not a percentile",
"wall_room": "percentile against this root's own banked wall spans",
"flip_dist": "percentile against this root's own banked distances",
"paid_vs_realised": "percentile against every banked session's own realised-range-over-breakeven ratio"
},
"range": {
"breakeven_pct": 5.016161865943921,
"breakeven_from": "front at-the-money implied vol 79.63% (expiry 2026-08-28) / sqrt(252)",
"breakeven_note": "the one-day move the option market is charging for. Part B found this is the figure that carries the information; the gamma reading did not add to it.",
"gamma_conditional": {
"q": 2,
"n": 24,
"median": 2.9244,
"p25": 2.2585,
"p75": 3.6438,
"basis": "sessions whose banked at-spot gamma fell in the same quintile as this reading"
},
"wall_span_pct": 18.765246762994934,
"last_session_sampled_pct": 1.86310752486396,
"paid_vs_realised": 0.37142093390428654,
"weekend_caveat": null
},
"verdict": {
"book": "forward",
"book_note": "The session has closed, so the same-day contracts in the final snapshot are already dead. This verdict is built on the FORWARD book \u2014 the gamma that still exists for the next session.",
"regime": "long",
"decay": "fast",
"pin": "away",
"lean": "none",
"regime_from": "net dealer gamma inside +/-1% of spot, as a share of the gross gamma in that band",
"regime_net_share": 0.9213030815444244,
"decay_from": "share of the FORWARD book's gross gamma sitting at its front expiry (2026-08-28)",
"decay_share": 0.6758383711560735,
"cuts": {
"flat_net_share_below": 0.2,
"fast_decay_at": 0.5,
"pin_within_pct": 0.25,
"lean_needs_pct": 0.15
}
},
"levels": {
"spot": 213.16,
"as_of": "2026-08-25T20:23:01+00:00",
"phase": "post_close",
"local_gamma_at_spot": 2991245.1389847407,
"local_strike": 212.5,
"local_band_1pct": 66301332.54925509,
"local_band_n": 5,
"local_band_pct": 2.75,
"local_band_widened": true,
"local_band_thin": false,
"call_wall_book": 230,
"put_wall_book": 190,
"total_gex": 350403108.2461192,
"total_gex_x": 326431963.971723,
"call_wall": 230,
"put_wall": 190,
"call_wall_contracts": 230,
"put_wall_contracts": 190,
"gamma_center": 220.48167998604748,
"gamma_flip": 220,
"room_up_pct": 7.900168887220868,
"room_down_pct": 10.865077875774066,
"centre_offset_pct": 3.434828291446559,
"zdte_gamma_share": 0,
"session_book_total_gex": 350403108.2461192,
"session_book_local": 2991245.1389847407,
"decay_of_local": 0
},
"pctl": {
"local_gamma": 33.6,
"zdte_share": 67.6,
"wall_room": 100,
"flip_dist": 51.4,
"paid_vs_realised": 0.6
},
"indices": [
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"futures_product": "ES",
"futures_ticker": "ESU6",
"handoff_ts": 1787689500,
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{
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-0.3045
],
[
1787702100,
-0.3318
],
[
1787702400,
-0.3293
],
[
1787702700,
-0.3028
],
[
1787703000,
-0.342
],
[
1787703300,
-0.2926
],
[
1787703600,
-0.3574
],
[
1787703900,
-0.4256
],
[
1787704200,
-0.4862
],
[
1787704500,
-0.5306
],
[
1787704800,
-0.5374
],
[
1787705100,
-0.5425
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[
1787705400,
-0.6039
],
[
1787705700,
-0.6704
],
[
1787706000,
-0.5715
],
[
1787706300,
-0.6235
],
[
1787706600,
-0.6312
],
[
1787706900,
-0.6542
],
[
1787707200,
-0.6918
],
[
1787707500,
-0.679
],
[
1787707800,
-0.6977
],
[
1787708100,
-0.6252
],
[
1787708400,
-0.6568
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[
1787708700,
-0.6764
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[
1787709000,
-0.6321
],
[
1787709300,
-0.5979
],
[
1787709600,
-0.5997
],
[
1787709900,
-0.6167
],
[
1787710200,
-0.5647
],
[
1787710500,
-0.5289
],
[
1787710800,
-0.5016
],
[
1787711100,
-0.4657
],
[
1787711400,
-0.435
],
[
1787711700,
-0.3881
]
],
"now_pct": -0.3881,
"now_ts": 1787711700,
"n_cash": 80,
"n_total": 143
}
],
"indices_note": "SPX and NAS100 are drawn as PERCENT CHANGE SINCE THE CASH CLOSE, not in their own points. That keeps them on a single shared axis, keeps their numbers away from this symbol's price scale, and makes the two directly comparable with each other \u2014 which is the reason to show both. They are market context and appear on every symbol; the price line's pairing to a specific future is a separate and stricter rule. Each index runs on its own cash prints up to the close and on its front future after it, with both legs divided by their own value at the anchor, so the handoff is continuous and the basis never shows up as a jump.",
"futures": null,
"ladder": {
"spot": 213.16,
"resistance": [
{
"level": 240,
"side": "resistance",
"rank": "2nd largest",
"is_headline_wall": false,
"is_dollar_gamma_wall": false,
"kind": "secondary call concentration",
"dist_pts": 26.84,
"dist_pct": 12.591,
"net_contracts": 87232,
"call_contracts": 88052,
"put_contracts": 820,
"share_of_book": 0.101,
"gex": 33102202.148913052,
"call_heavy": true,
"does": "A further band of call hedging above price, lighter than the wall but closer to the tape than the numbers alone suggest. The same mechanics apply, at smaller size."
},
{
"level": 230,
"side": "resistance",
"rank": "largest",
"is_headline_wall": true,
"is_dollar_gamma_wall": true,
"kind": "call wall",
"dist_pts": 16.84,
"dist_pct": 7.9,
"net_contracts": 106877,
"call_contracts": 110032,
"put_contracts": 3155,
"share_of_book": 0.1238,
"gex": 76610887.2256111,
"call_heavy": true,
"does": "The heaviest call hedging overhead. On the usual assumption that dealers are LONG these calls, staying hedged means selling into rallies as price approaches \u2014 which is what would slow a move here."
},
{
"level": 225,
"side": "resistance",
"rank": "3rd largest",
"is_headline_wall": false,
"is_dollar_gamma_wall": false,
"kind": "secondary call concentration",
"dist_pts": 11.84,
"dist_pct": 5.555,
"net_contracts": 63424,
"call_contracts": 75470,
"put_contracts": 12046,
"share_of_book": 0.0734,
"gex": 57150603.22720935,
"call_heavy": true,
"does": "A further band of call hedging above price, lighter than the wall but closer to the tape than the numbers alone suggest. The same mechanics apply, at smaller size."
}
],
"support": [
{
"level": 200,
"side": "support",
"rank": "2nd largest",
"is_headline_wall": false,
"is_dollar_gamma_wall": false,
"kind": "secondary put concentration",
"dist_pts": -13.16,
"dist_pct": -6.174,
"net_contracts": -35709,
"call_contracts": 10279,
"put_contracts": 45988,
"share_of_book": 0.0414,
"gex": -26547736.18966685,
"call_heavy": false,
"does": "A further band of put hedging below price, lighter than the wall. The same mechanics apply, at smaller size."
},
{
"level": 195,
"side": "support",
"rank": "3rd largest",
"is_headline_wall": false,
"is_dollar_gamma_wall": false,
"kind": "secondary put concentration",
"dist_pts": -18.16,
"dist_pct": -8.519,
"net_contracts": -25418,
"call_contracts": 5547,
"put_contracts": 30965,
"share_of_book": 0.0294,
"gex": -13495498.409130828,
"call_heavy": false,
"does": "A further band of put hedging below price, lighter than the wall. The same mechanics apply, at smaller size."
},
{
"level": 190,
"side": "support",
"rank": "largest",
"is_headline_wall": true,
"is_dollar_gamma_wall": true,
"kind": "put wall",
"dist_pts": -23.16,
"dist_pct": -10.865,
"net_contracts": -91979,
"call_contracts": 3199,
"put_contracts": 95178,
"share_of_book": 0.1065,
"gex": -34359254.29046657,
"call_heavy": false,
"does": "The heaviest put hedging below. On the usual assumption that dealers are SHORT these puts, staying hedged means buying as price falls toward it \u2014 which is what would cushion a move here."
}
],
"ranked_by": "netted contract count at the strike (call open interest minus put open interest), as a share of the netted contracts across the whole band",
"regime_boundary": {
"level": 220,
"dist_pts": 6.84,
"dist_pct": 3.209,
"label": "REGIME BOUNDARY \u2014 not support, not resistance",
"means": "The strike where the running total of dealer gamma changes sign. Above it dealer hedging leans against moves and damps them; below it hedging leans with moves and amplifies them. It is a boundary between two behaviours, NOT a level price is repelled by \u2014 and this page reads the live regime from the gamma right around spot rather than from this level, because spot-versus-flip is much weaker than it is usually treated as."
},
"magnet": {
"level": 220.48167998604748,
"dist_pts": 7.32,
"dist_pct": 3.435,
"label": "MAGNET \u2014 the opposite of a barrier",
"means": "The gamma-weighted centre of the book: the level hedging flow pulls price TOWARD, rather than a level that pushes price away. Price sitting on it is the pinned configuration."
},
"book": "forward",
"qualifier": "These are where dealer hedging CONCENTRATES. They are not levels price is obliged to respect: a big enough directional move overwhelms even a massive wall of gamma.",
"measured": {
"headline": "MEASURED, THE WALLS DID NOT ACT AS SUPPORT OR RESISTANCE. When the tape actually reached the call wall it closed back below it only 40.2% of the time (n=256) \u2014 against 38.1% for a level placed the same distance away with no gamma in it at all (difference +2.1 points, p=0.53). The put wall held 42.8% of the 180 times price reached it, against a placebo of 44.7% (-1.9 points, p=0.67). Neither is distinguishable from an arbitrary level, and the call wall was BROKEN more often than it held.",
"call_hold_rate": 0.4023,
"call_n": 256,
"put_hold_rate": 0.4278,
"put_n": 180,
"ranking_consequence": "So the ladder on the page CANNOT rank levels by a measured reliability, because no such reliability was found. It ranks them by raw concentration \u2014 how much of the book sits at that strike \u2014 and prints this null result beside the labels rather than implying a strength the data does not support."
},
"dealer_side_caveat": "WHICH SIDE ARE DEALERS ACTUALLY ON? This is the one thing gamma exposure cannot see, and it decides whether a wall brakes or accelerates. Every number here INFERS it from a convention \u2014 that customers sell calls and buy puts, so dealers end up long calls and short puts, which is what makes a call wall behave like a ceiling. When that convention is wrong the sign flips with it: if customers are BUYING calls, dealers are SHORT them, and staying hedged means buying INTO a rally through the same strike \u2014 the level becomes an accelerant instead of a brake. On the book these levels are drawn from, 67.6% of the gross gamma sits at the front expiry \u2014 the short-dated, retail-facing end of the chain, where that assumption is least safe. Nothing on this page can confirm the direction, so read the labels as where hedging is concentrated, not as which way it will push."
},
"regime": {
"book": "forward",
"has": true,
"regime": "dampening",
"at_spot": 340715990,
"flip": 200.744,
"flip_side": "above",
"flip_dist_pct": 5.825,
"spot": 213.16,
"census": {
"oi_used": 1192094,
"oi_missing_iv": 1041,
"n_session": 243,
"n_forward": 243
},
"assumptions": "MODELLED, NOT MEASURED. Each contract is repriced with Black-Scholes gamma while its implied vol and days-to-expiry are held FIXED and spot is hypothetically moved (a sticky-strike assumption); r=0; same-day options are floored to 1 day of time so their gamma stays finite (they are removed entirely on the forward book); the contract universe is identical to the per-strike chart (+/-15% of spot, nearest 6 expiries); OI-weighted, never volume; calls +1, puts -1, netted per contract.",
"estimator": "Black-Scholes gamma from each contract's own implied vol \u2014 the same estimator family as this page's \"our own Black-Scholes solve\" figure (total_gex_x), never the vendor gamma and never fused with it."
},
"migration": {
"from_iso": "2026-08-25T13:08:02+00:00",
"to_iso": "2026-08-25T20:23:01+00:00",
"n_snapshots": 80,
"call_wall": [
220,
230
],
"put_wall": [
190,
190
],
"gamma_center": [
217.64064076980168,
220.48167998604748
],
"spot": [
211.11,
213.16
],
"local_gamma_at_spot": [
63192838.31875312,
2991245.1389847407
],
"sign_flips": 0
},
"census": {
"n": 3440,
"in_band": 276,
"oi_known": 276,
"oi_missing": 0,
"oi_zero": 30,
"g_vendor": 273,
"g_x": 217,
"used": 273
},
"freshness": {
"chain_day": "2026-08-25",
"chain_asof": "2026-08-25T20:23:01+00:00",
"chain_phase": "post_close",
"chain_built": "2026-08-25T21:50:47Z",
"now_utc": "2026-08-26T02:39:14Z",
"tiers": [
{
"key": "chain",
"label": "options chain",
"ts": "2026-08-25T20:23:01+00:00",
"cadence": 300,
"phase": "held",
"means": "The full option chain, captured every 5 minutes while the market is open and held at the last reading once it closes. Outside trading hours a held clock is correct behaviour, not a failure."
},
{
"key": "build",
"label": "profile build",
"ts": "2026-08-25T21:50:47Z",
"cadence": 600,
"phase": "held",
"means": "When the per-strike gamma profile on this page was last rebuilt from the chain archive. It rebuilds every 10 minutes while the market is open and holds at the last build once it closes \u2014 a held clock out of hours is correct, not a failure."
},
{
"key": "open interest",
"ts": "2026-08-25",
"cadence": 86400,
"mode": "date",
"phase": "settled",
"means": "Settled overnight by the clearing house for the PREVIOUS session. It does not move intraday \u2014 market structure, not neglect."
},
{
"key": "daily history",
"ts": "2026-08-24",
"cadence": 86400,
"mode": "date",
"phase": "settled",
"means": "The banked daily-close spine the history charts draw. One row per session."
},
{
"key": "runs archive",
"label": "bull/bear archive",
"ts": "2026-08-25",
"cadence": 86400,
"mode": "date",
"phase": "settled",
"grace": 216000,
"means": "Daily closes from 1999-01-22 to 2026-08-25, used ONLY by the optional bull/bear runs block. It extends by one row per completed session, so a day behind is normal and a week behind is not."
}
],
"chain_cadence": "every 5 minutes in regular trading hours, plus a pre-open and a post-close bracket",
"open_interest": "PREVIOUS session, settled overnight by the clearing house. It does not move intraday \u2014 a market-structure fact, not a defect.",
"history_last": "2026-08-24",
"history_gex_window": "from 2026-03-02 (the OCC open-interest purchase); continues past 2026-08-04 from the live chain recorder rather than ending there",
"validation_built": "2026-08-25T09:20:01Z"
},
"method": {
"weighting": "OI-ONLY. Never volume. A contract with no reported open interest is EXCLUDED and COUNTED (see census.oi_missing), never treated as zero.",
"oi_is_stale_by_design": "Open interest is the PREVIOUS session's settled figure, published overnight by the clearing house. It does not move intraday. A strike listed this morning legitimately reads 0 all session while millions of contracts trade. Market structure, not a data defect.",
"formula": "gex = sign * gamma * oi * 100 * spot^2 * 0.01, sign +1 call / -1 put, NET at each strike",
"band": "+/-15% of spot, nearest 6 expiries \u2014 matched to the opra-gex v2 archive the validation history is built on",
"cadence": "the recorder sweeps every 5 minutes during regular trading hours, plus a pre-open and a post-close bracket",
"primary": "NETTED CONTRACT COUNTS PER STRIKE (net_oi = call OI - put OI) are the PRIMARY read. Dollar gamma at a single strike explodes as spot approaches it and collapses as spot leaves, so a dollar-ranked wall is a moving target; the contract count is not. Dollar gamma (gex) is reported beside it as the SECONDARY.",
"construction_gap": "THE LIVE READ AND THE BACKTEST ARE NOT THE SAME CONSTRUCTION, and a reader must not assume the one validates the other exactly. This file computes per-strike NETTED CONTRACT COUNTS from the 5-minute chain recorder, which banks per-contract open interest for all 9 roots \u2014 but only from 2026-08-05 forward. The Part B validation history (2026-02 .. 2026-08-04) has no per-strike open interest at all; only the DAILY DOLLAR-GEX AGGREGATE exists back there, which is the very construction the contract-count rule warns against. So the hit rates on this page were measured on the aggregate, while the live regime read is built on the netted counts.",
"estimators": "total_gex uses the VENDOR gamma; total_gex_x uses our own Black-Scholes gamma. Never fused, never substituted \u2014 see census.g_vendor / census.g_x."
}
}
Full payload including every snapshot, the per-strike profile and the complete validation tables: api.php?sym=NVDA&full=1 · text: ?format=text · Part B only: ?validation=1