Will this move keep going — one direction — and for how long?

A gauge for sustained, one-directional, multi-day drives, built entirely on a pre-registered backtest (frozen before anything was tested). Most cells read “no edge”. That is the finding, not a broken page: 663 tests, 17 survive multiple-testing correction, and every one of the 17 points the opposite way to the folklore. Nothing here is a forecast — the page describes what the history measured and stops.

reading the study… Source research/trend-predictability pre-registration frozen 2026-08-13 · market data through 2026-08-12 · primary instrument ^GSPC

The gauge — odds of a one-directional drive, by horizon

Each column is a horizon. The big number is the base rate: how often it has actually happened, unconditionally, since 1970. ?

What the gauge is measuring

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Every predictor, every horizon — where the measurement landed

One row per candidate, one column per horizon. Each cell is a dot on a fixed scale with the null band drawn in grey: a dot inside the grey band is a measurement that cannot be told apart from nothing. ?
Outcome Sort

What today's readings actually say

Plain-language state, chosen by the same percentiles the charts draw. Descriptive only — no sentence here says what happens next.

How one-directional has the market actually been, over time?

Price on top, the study's own forward trend-efficiency series flush beneath it.
Window Horizon
Indicator pane · forward trend efficiency, as the study computed it

Is the Hurst exponent ever actually high — against its own honest threshold?

Every candidate predictor, drawn over the full history, with the grey band showing what the same estimator returns on a market with no memory at all.
Scale window: shared with the price chart above
Tape colouring window: shared with every other time chart on this page

Dealer gamma — not cleared, and not rejected: not testable yet

The honest state of the one candidate the estate most wanted to work.
Companion pane · how the sample is accumulating, and when it becomes answerable

Could this test have found an edge if one were there?

A known effect was injected at seven strengths and the pipeline recovered every one. That is what makes the null result strong rather than weak.

The full horse race — every predictor, every instrument

Fitted on data to 2014, scored on 2015 onward. Sortable; extremes coloured, the middle deliberately grey.
Instrument

Does anything survive inside a volatility regime, or in the modern era?

Method, provenance and what is deliberately missing

Every number on this page, and the file it came from