Continuation — when unusual spot↔vol conditions precede multi-day runs
Normally the S&P and the VIX move opposite ways — a rally releases hedges, so vol falls. This page measures how tightly that
holds right now, how unusual the current reading is against 36 years of its own history, and — the part that matters — what states like it have
actually preceded: how many consecutive same-direction days followed, how much of the next month's movement went one way instead of thrashing,
and how big the move ended up. Pumps and dumps are measured separately and with equal completeness, and the downside is deliberately not
built as the mirror of the upside — the melt-up shape is unusual because it inverts the normal relationship, while its literal negation is simply the
ordinary decline. Every conditional number is shown beside the unconditional base rate and its sample size, because a 65% hit rate
means nothing until you can see the 64% that happens anyway. Nothing here names a side.
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What are the S&P and the VIX doing relative to each other right now?
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Has any state like today's actually shown a different outcome in the record?
only states whose forward distribution differs from the base rate by 2+ overlap-corrected standard errors appear here
Where did each session land — did volatility move with price or against it?
every session in the window as one dot — how far the S&P moved against how far the VIX moved. The quadrant is the whole claim.
Did volatility rise or fall on the days price rose? — spot move against volatility move, one dot per session
x = S&P % · y = ΔVIX points
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Signal 1 · How tightly is volatility still moving opposite the index?
three windows, kept separate — they are read together and never averaged into one number
Is the normal inverse relationship holding? — rolling correlation between the daily S&P move and the daily VIX move
−1 = perfectly opposite · 0 = decoupled
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How often has each combination shown up this month? — share of the last 21 sessions in each spot/vol quadrant
the regime read, not one day
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Signals 2 & 3 · Has the market been running one way or churning, and what is the vol curve doing?
read from the regime seed and the volts store — recomputed nowhere, so a value means one thing across both apps
Has the recent movement gone somewhere or cancelled itself out? — path efficiency, typical daily range, estimator spread, carry
four conditioning variables, own units
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Is the next month priced above or below the next quarter? — VIX term structure, one-month implied divided by three-month
above 1.0 = inverted
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The study — what each state actually preceded, with its sample size and error
Which findings survive the overlap correction, and which do not? — effect size against evidence
x = gap from baseline · y = independent episodes
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FrameFamily
Signal 4 · What is the dealer positioning context? — accumulating, not scored
shown raw with its sample count, because 22 observations cannot produce an honest percentile
Every number on this page, in full — where each sits against its own history
value, percentile, z-score, sample size and the span that sample covers — no number on this page stands alone
What the words on this page mean
every term of art used above, in plain language — the vocabulary stays, the meaning is spelled out