Volts — the vol term structure
The option market prices S&P 500 volatility at four horizons at once — tomorrow, nine days, one month, three months. The shape that ladder makes is the signal, and it exists nowhere else in BFM: everything else banks vol levels. This page reads the curve (six slopes between those four nodes) and the cross-asset legs (equity vol against vol-of-vol, tail-risk pricing, Nasdaq, gold and oil vol). Every number is shown against its own history, because the level on its own means nothing without knowing what this measure normally does. These are conditioning variables: they say what state vol pricing is in. Nothing here names a side, and there is no threshold to cross.
How to use this page — the question it answers, how to read the headline, and what changes at high versus low readings
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What state is volatility pricing in right now?
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Is volatility cheaper now or later? — the curve across four horizons
each node against its own history — the shape is read off the ORDERING, with no threshold anywhereWhat is the market charging for each horizon? — S&P 500 implied volatility by horizon, today's curve against its own history
tenor × vol points— drag to resize —
What did the S&P and Nasdaq futures actually do? — the thing this vol ladder is about
ES=F and NQ=F from /basics (Massive front-month + Yahoo history) · house windows · shared X · independent height and candle width · crisp candlesS&P 500 futures — ES=F front-month close, this window
index points · /basics feed— drag to resize —
Nasdaq 100 futures — NQ=F front-month close, this window
index points · /basics feed— drag to resize —
Has the near end been bid over the far end, and when? — the six horizon slopes over time
every pair of horizons as a ratio — above 1.0 the front leg is bid above the back leg, which is the arithmetic definition of an inversionWhich parts of the curve are inverted? — term-structure slopes, front horizon ÷ back horizon (ratio; above 1.0 = the near end is bid over the far end)
6 slopes · parity at 1.0— drag to resize —
Is the calm — or the fear — specific to equities, or everywhere? — the five cross-asset vol legs
every leg divided by 30-day S&P vol — what is expensive relative to equity volatility, and what is notWhere is protection being paid for, and where is it not? — cross-asset volatility ratios, each leg ÷ VIX
5 legs · one denominator— drag to resize —
What are the underlying indices actually printing? — the raw levels
the nine indices the ratios are built from — no hardcoded floor anywhere, only each index against its own recordWhat is each index printing, in its own units? — volatility index levels in annualised vol points (SKEW on its own construction)
÷16 = % move per day— drag to resize —
Which measures are unusual today, and which are ordinary?
every measure as its own-history percentile, on one shared colour ramp — the mandatory companion to the line charts aboveWhich slopes and legs are running hot or cold against their own past? — vol-structure tape, over time
rows × time— drag to resize —
Did the curve change shape during the day? — inside today's session
the 15-minute path of the curve — one observation a day cannot see an inversion form and un-formDid an inversion form and un-form today? — curve state through the session, every 15-minute observation
15m grid · RTH— drag to resize —