Put skew — out-of-the-money put IV minus OTM call IV. Puts pricier (positive) = demand for downside protection. The equity norm is ~2–9 pts; only EXTREMES carry a directional signal.
The smirk — IV plotted across strikes (chart above). Puts (left) sit above calls (right) in equities; a steeper left side = rising downside fear.
Term structure — front-month skew vs ~30 days. Backwardation (front higher) = acute near-term fear → bearish near term. Contango (front lower) = the usual calm state → no signal.
The call — combines extreme skew + backwardation into ↑ bullish / ↓ bearish / → neutral per horizon. Normal skew + contango = no edge (that's the honest read most days).