//@version=6
// ============================================================================
//  M2 Nowcast / Net-Liquidity Lead
//  Know M2's DIRECTION before the lagged monthly M2 print, via faster-releasing
//  leads (weekly M2, Fed net liquidity, H.8 bank deposits) — all normalized so
//  different-scale series compare, and each time-offsettable so you can slide a
//  lead forward to see it front-run the monthly M2 line.
//
//  WHY EACH SERIES LEADS M2 (all confirmed to resolve as FRED:<ID>):
//   • Weekly M2  (FRED:WM2NS)  — near-real-time M2, weekly-ending-Monday obs.
//       The H.6 release is only PUBLISHED monthly (since 2021-02-23), so the
//       series STEPS (flat then jumps) — but it still lands the M2 level ~3 wks
//       before the headline monthly print. This IS M2, just fresher-dated.
//   • Monthly M2 (FRED:M2SL)   — the seasonally-adjusted headline being front-run.
//       Monthly, released 4th Tuesday for the PRIOR month (~3-4 wk lag). Plotted
//       faint as the reference the leads are trying to predict.
//   • Net Liquidity = WALCL − TGA − RRP  — the macro-liquidity driver. Fed total
//       assets minus Treasury cash minus reverse-repo drains = money actually in
//       the system. Weekly (Thu H.4.1) + daily RRP, so it moves well ahead of M2.
//   • H.8 deposits (FRED:DPSACBW027SBOG) — commercial-bank deposits are ~80-90%
//       of M2 and are created when banks lend, so the weekly H.8 print (Wed-dated,
//       released Fri) effectively PRE-ANNOUNCES the monthly M2 by ~2-3 weeks.
//
//  UNIT SCALING — the #1 correctness risk (verified magnitudes 2026-06-24/30):
//    M2 (WM2NS/M2SL) ...... BILLIONS  (WM2NS ~23,062.9 = $23.06T)  -> as-is
//    WALCL ................ MILLIONS  (6,735,645 = ~$6.74T)        -> /1000 -> billions
//    TGA (WDTGAL/WTREGEN) . MILLIONS  (~918,696 = ~$919B)          -> /1000 -> billions
//    RRPONTSYD ............ BILLIONS  (26.900 = ~$26.9B)           -> as-is (billions)
//    DPSACBW027SBOG ....... BILLIONS  (~$18T level prints ~18,000) -> as-is
//  Everything below is normalized to $ BILLIONS. NEVER infer scale from
//  TradingView (it shows generic 'USD') — these are confirmed on the FRED pages.
//
//  HONEST LABEL: this is a NOWCAST, not a guarantee. Leads front-run M2 but do
//  not perfectly predict it; the up/down read is a probabilistic direction cue.
//  Note also that request.security reads CURRENT (revised) values, so a backtest
//  read is look-ahead-biased vs. what was known in real time — fine for a macro
//  overlay, don't wire it into an automated signal.
// ============================================================================
indicator("M2 Nowcast / Net-Liquidity Lead", shorttitle="M2 Nowcast", overlay=false, precision=2)

// ── Data sources (editable — defaults are the verified FRED tickers) ──────────
gS = "Data sources (FRED)"
wm2Sym  = input.symbol("FRED:WM2NS",          "Weekly M2 (NSA)",              group=gS, tooltip="Near-real-time M2, weekly-ending-Monday. Published monthly (H.6) so it steps. Leads the monthly print ~3 weeks. BILLIONS.")
m2slSym = input.symbol("FRED:M2SL",           "Monthly M2 (SA, reference)",   group=gS, tooltip="The seasonally-adjusted headline M2 being front-run. Monthly, ~3-4 wk lag. BILLIONS. Plotted faint.")
walclSym= input.symbol("FRED:WALCL",          "Fed balance sheet (WALCL)",    group=gS, tooltip="Fed total assets, weekly Wednesday level, released Thu H.4.1. MILLIONS on FRED — divided by 1000 here.")
tgaSym  = input.symbol("FRED:WDTGAL",          "Treasury General Account (TGA)",group=gS, tooltip="Treasury cash. WDTGAL = Wednesday level (matches WALCL basis); swap to FRED:WTREGEN for week-average. MILLIONS — /1000 here.")
rrpSym  = input.symbol("FRED:RRPONTSYD",      "Overnight reverse repo (RRP)",  group=gS, tooltip="ON RRP drain, DAILY. BILLIONS on FRED — used as-is (already billions). Do NOT x1000 this AND treat TGA as billions; only RRP is billions among the liquidity terms.")
depSym  = input.symbol("FRED:DPSACBW027SBOG", "H.8 bank deposits (SA)",        group=gS, tooltip="Commercial-bank deposits ~80-90% of M2, weekly Wed-dated (H.8, released Fri). Leads M2 ~2-3 weeks. BILLIONS.")

// ── Series show toggles ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────
gShow = "Show series"
showWM2 = input.bool(true,  "Weekly M2 (WM2NS) — leads ~3wk",        group=gShow)
showM2  = input.bool(true,  "Monthly M2 (M2SL) — the reference",     group=gShow)
showNL  = input.bool(true,  "Net Liquidity (WALCL−TGA−RRP)",         group=gShow)
showDep = input.bool(true,  "H.8 deposits (leads ~2-3wk)",           group=gShow)

// ── Time offset (slide leads forward so they align with / lead monthly M2) ─────
gO = "Time offset (lead / lag)"
offBars = input.int(0, "Offset LEADS by N bars  (+ shifts them forward => they LEAD M2)", group=gO,
     tooltip="Shifts the three lead series (weekly M2, net liquidity, deposits) forward/back in time so you can line them up against — or ahead of — the lagging monthly M2 line. On a weekly chart, try +2 to +4 to visualize the typical release lead.")

// ── Normalization (so billions-M2 and a net-liq line compare on one axis) ──────
gN = "Normalize"
normMode = input.string("Z-score", "Normalize", options=["Z-score", "% from start", "Raw"], group=gN,
     tooltip="Z-score = standardized (comparable shapes regardless of scale). % from start = growth vs the first observation. Raw = untouched values (only sensible if all are already the same magnitude).")
normLen  = input.int(104, "Z-score / slope lookback (bars)", minval=10, group=gN,
     tooltip="Lookback for the z-score mean/stdev AND for the ROC growth term. 104 ≈ 2 years of weekly bars. Use a weekly or daily chart.")

// ── Nowcast direction read ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
gD = "Nowcast direction"
slopeLen = input.int(8, "Direction slope lookback (bars)", minval=1, group=gD,
     tooltip="Bars over which the composite lead's slope (ROC) is measured for the up/down read. ~8 weekly bars ≈ 2 months.")
useComposite = input.bool(true, "Composite (net-liq + deposits) drives the read", group=gD,
     tooltip="ON: average the net-liquidity and H.8-deposits growth for a steadier direction cue. OFF: use net liquidity alone.")
showBg = input.bool(true, "Shade background GREEN=up / RED=down", group=gD)

// ── Pull series (no look-ahead bias); scale each to $ BILLIONS ─────────────────
wm2   = request.security(wm2Sym,   timeframe.period, close, lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_off)  // BILLIONS as-is
m2sl  = request.security(m2slSym,  timeframe.period, close, lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_off)  // BILLIONS as-is
walcl = request.security(walclSym, timeframe.period, close, lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_off)  // MILLIONS
tga   = request.security(tgaSym,   timeframe.period, close, lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_off)  // MILLIONS
rrp   = request.security(rrpSym,   timeframe.period, close, lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_off)  // BILLIONS
dep   = request.security(depSym,   timeframe.period, close, lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_off)  // BILLIONS as-is

// NET LIQUIDITY in $ billions:
//   WALCL(millions)/1000  −  TGA(millions)/1000  −  RRP(already billions)
// i.e. (WALCL − TGA)/1000 − RRP. This keeps every term in billions to match M2.
netliq = walcl / 1000.0 - tga / 1000.0 - rrp

// ── First non-na values = bases for %-from-start normalization ─────────────────
var float bWm2 = na, var float bM2 = na, var float bNL = na, var float bDep = na
if na(bWm2) and not na(wm2)
    bWm2 := wm2
if na(bM2)  and not na(m2sl)
    bM2  := m2sl
if na(bNL)  and not na(netliq)
    bNL  := netliq
if na(bDep) and not na(dep)
    bDep := dep

// ── Normalize helper ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
normalize(s, baseV) =>
    r = s
    if normMode == "Z-score"
        mu = ta.sma(s, normLen)
        sd = ta.stdev(s, normLen)
        r := sd != 0 ? (s - mu) / sd : 0.0
    else if normMode == "% from start"
        r := (not na(baseV) and baseV != 0) ? (s / baseV - 1.0) * 100.0 : na
    r

nWm2 = normalize(wm2,    bWm2)
nM2  = normalize(m2sl,   bM2)
nNL  = normalize(netliq, bNL)
nDep = normalize(dep,    bDep)

// ── Nowcast direction: slope of the fast leads => "M2 pointing up / down" ──────
nlG  = ta.roc(netliq, slopeLen)     // net-liquidity growth (the leading driver)
depG = ta.roc(dep,    slopeLen)     // deposits growth (the bulk of M2)
dirRaw   = useComposite ? (nlG + depG) / 2.0 : nlG
nowUp    = dirRaw > 0
dirColor = nowUp ? color.new(color.green, 0) : color.new(color.red, 0)

// ── Plots ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
// Reference: the lagging monthly M2 being front-run (faint, no offset).
plot(showM2  ? nM2  : na, "Monthly M2 (M2SL, reference)", color=color.new(color.gray, 55), linewidth=1)

// The three leads — offsettable so they can be slid forward to lead M2.
plot(showWM2 ? nWm2 : na, "Weekly M2 (WM2NS)",  color=color.new(color.blue,   0), linewidth=2, offset=offBars)
plot(showNL  ? nNL  : na, "Net Liquidity",      color=color.new(color.orange, 0), linewidth=2, offset=offBars)
plot(showDep ? nDep : na, "H.8 deposits",       color=color.new(color.teal,   0), linewidth=2, offset=offBars)

// Nowcast direction row + background: GREEN when leads rising (M2 likely UP),
// RED when falling (M2 likely DOWN). Honest nowcast — a direction cue, not a call.
bgcolor(showBg ? color.new(nowUp ? color.green : color.red, 88) : na, title="Nowcast up/down shade")
plotshape(dirRaw, "Nowcast direction dot", style=shape.circle, location=location.bottom, color=dirColor, size=size.tiny)
hline(0, "zero (normalized)", color=color.new(color.gray, 70))