The basis — the gap between a stock index and the futures contract that settles to it — is not an opinion about direction.
It is the market quoting what it costs to carry that exposure on borrowed money instead of owning the shares.
Sign convention, stated once and never restated differently: basis = cash minus future, so a negative basis means the future
trades above cash. Spread over the days left on the contract it becomes an implied net cost of carry — financing minus the
dividends you give up by holding a future instead of the shares — which is why it sits structurally below any pure interest rate, and why
the 10-year is shown beside it rather than blended into it. Two pairs, never merged: S&P 500 / ES=F and Nasdaq 100 / NQ=F.
Everything on this page describes what is happening now and the mechanics behind it. Nothing here forecasts anything
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Where we are now
Every chart on this page shares one time axis — pick a range here, or zoom and drag on any chart, and they all move together.
How far has the future been trading from the index?
the basis over time — both units, both indices, both measurement tiers, with every contract switch marked where it happened
Basis over time — the gap between the index and its future, as a fraction of the index (bp)
roll steps marked, never smoothed
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Why the raw gap is partly just a calendar — the basis against days left on the contract
the confound, drawn
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What does it cost to hold the index through futures?
implied cost of carry — the calendar-free form of the same fact, with the 10-year beside it rather than inside it
Implied cost of carry — what a year of holding the index through futures costs, next to the 10-year (% a year)
r − q, not r
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When does the index actually move — overnight, or during the session?
the future trades about 23 hours a day and the index itself prints 6.5, so the day is reported in parts and never only as a total
Ground made while the shares were closed, against ground made while they traded (cumulative %)
components, plus the total
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Did the overnight futures move show up in the opening price? — the fair-value gap, one point per session
one point per session
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Which of these readings is unusual, and when?
every measurement against its own history — rows × time on one colour ramp, the glanceable companion to the exact line charts above
Every measurement against its own history — red = near its own high, blue = near its own low
rows × time
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What happens when the future switches contracts?
the roll — every contract change in the record, the jump it caused, and what it would have done to the statistics if it had been left in
What has followed readings like today's? — history, not a forecast
groups fixed before anything was looked at · every group reported, including the ones that say nothing · the all-sessions baseline pinned beside them, and a result inside two margins of error is not evidence of anything
All the numbers behind the page
every column sortable · each reading shown with how it ranks against its own history, how far it sits from its own average, how many sessions that ranking is built from, and the shape it came out of
How this is measured, where it comes from, and what it cannot tell you